RenMac Off-Script: Fed Forecast Folly

RenMac welcomes WSJ Correspondent Nick Timiraos to unpack a pivotal week for monetary policy. The team digs into why the January jobs print will determine whether the next cut is “live,” how hawkish dissents shaped Fed communications, and what the Chair succession battle means for policy credibility. deGraaf highlights improving market breadth and surprising strength across banks, metals, and equal-weight indices, while Dutta outlines a deteriorating labor market beneath the surface. And Pavlick breaks down Venezuela strategy, ACA deadlines, defense legislation, and a new outbound investment screen targeting China.

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Timestamps
00:00 Welcome, Disclaimer, & Intro
01:01 Intros, panel roll call & special guest Nick Timiraos (“Fed Whisperer”)
02:22 Fed decision recap: mixed message, Powell’s tone & data dependence
03:39 January cut odds, “live” meetings & why the unemployment rate dominates
05:00 Hawkish dissents, Goolsbee surprise & post-meeting communication
06:08 October presser, market repricing & Williams’ rescue mission
08:16 Institutional pressure on the Fed: politics, reappointments & independence
10:21 Fed Chair “Apprentice” race: Hassett, Bessent, Walsh & Trump’s litmus test
12:05 Which Hassett shows up? Relationships at the Fed & persuasion vs posturing
14:49 Neil’s labor-market thesis: quits falling, layoffs rising & wage growth slowing
19:37 Housing outlook: mortgage rate “unlock” levels & whether the Fed underweights housing
23:05 SEP unemployment bands, 4.6% as a quiet trigger & what it implies for cuts
25:49 Market reaction: equal-weight S&P highs, improving breadth & sector rotation
27:47 Metals strength vs crypto downtrends: BTC, ETH, Zcash & risk sentiment
28:52 Rates setup: 2-year vs 10-year, curve steepening & implications for equities and builders
31:43 Does the Fed care about crypto? Nick’s take, then mailbag on ETH vs BTC
33:49 RenMac merch plug: trucker hats, Carhartt caps & listener shoutouts (Cape Town, Schwab, etc.)
35:44 Venezuela update: Maduro pressure campaign, Rubio’s influence & regime-change calculus
37:52 D.C. watch: failed ACA votes, Jan. 30 funding deadline & outbound investment screen in the NDAA
40:18 AI executive order: federal standard vs 50-state patchwork & legal durability
42:50 Next week’s macro watch: payrolls, wages, retail sales, inflation & reconciling GDP vs labor data
45:09 Fed “Apprentice” process: Bessent’s capital-P Process, timing & how much it can really move Trump
48:02 Banks breaking out, financials under the hood & where new leadership is emerging
49:40 Fed balance sheet moves: $40B “not QE,” reserve management & operating-regime mechanics
52:22 Birthday roast for Steve, podcast + newsletter + merch plugs & Make-A-Wish reminder
53:45 Closing Remarks