How to Forecast with Confidence Using Monte Carlo Simulation | The Statistical CFO

Forecasting doesn’t have to feel like guessing. In this episode of The Statistical CFO, Josh Zable shows how Monte Carlo simulation helps you see the range of possible outcomes so you can plan smarter and lead with confidence.

→ Understand Uncertainty: Learn how Monte Carlo simulation turns random variability into actionable insight.
→ Forecast with Confidence: See how to model outcomes and quantify risks using your own data.
→ Make Smarter Decisions: Use simulation to plan for best, worst, and most likely scenarios so you’re always ready.

Even if you’ve mastered forecasting basics, you’ll be surprised how much more clarity and confidence Monte Carlo simulation brings to your data.

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00:06 – What Is Monte Carlo Simulation?
00:50 – Why CFOs & Finance Teams Should Use It
02:03 – How Monte Carlo Quantifies Risk
04:32 – Simple Monte Carlo Forecasting Example
05:00 – Revenue Forecast Simulation Walkthrough
09:00 – How to Run Monte Carlo in Minitab
13:09 – Understanding Results: Means & Percentiles
15:12 – Advanced Example: Forecasting Operating Income
18:55 – Turning Wide Ranges Into Accurate Guidance
19:41 – Final Takeaways for Confident Forecasting