Trump’s Out to Break India’s Back but We Shouldn’t Retaliate for Now; This Will Have Lasting Damage

Trump's out to break India's back but we shouldn't retaliate for now; this will have lasting damage on India's relationship with Trump: former Foreign Secretary, Kanwal Sibal, to Karan Thapar for The Wire.

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One of India’s most highly regarded former Foreign Secretaries, who has also served as Ambassador to France and Russia and is presently Chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University, has said that Trump’s behaviour, both over tariffs and India’s import of Russian oil, is vindictive and an attempt to break India’s back and break the country’s resolve. He says it will have lasting damage on India’s relationship with President Trump. He says the trust factor has been very hard hit.



However, Kanwal Sibal says that for now India should not seek to retaliate but the government should keep its door open and continue to negotiate for a mutually fair and acceptable trade deal. We need to wait to see the outcome of Trump’s talks with Russia and China and also what pressure is brought on Trump by corporate America, who Mr. Sibal believes are much more sympathetic to India.



In a 25-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Mr. Sibal says he doesn’t believe that the QUAD Summit will happen this year and, after all that has happened, he can’t see how Trump could be warmly welcomed if he chooses to come to India.



Mr. Sibal does not see the situation improving during the remaining three and a half years of Trump’s term. He says we will have a difficult relationship. What we don’t know is that even if Trump becomes weaker he could become more unpredictable and mercurial. The next three and a half years are not going to be easy for us.



I will stop there. There’s a lot in this interview that is substantially different to what you have heard from other experts. I, therefore, strongly recommend you view it.



To help you, I will give you the main questions asked so you know how the interview develops. Here are the questions:



1) Before we discuss how India should respond to President Trump, both in terms of tariffs and the deteriorating relationship between India and America, let’s first focus on how serious the situation is. Ajay Srivastava, the Founder of Global Trade Research Initiative, says with 25 per cent tariffs India’s exports to the USA could fall by 30% in the current financial year from $86 billion to just $60 billion. The worst affected sectors are labour intensive ones like shrimps, garments and textiles and jewelry. Shyam Saran, the former Foreign Secretary, says the tariffs could reduce India’s GDP growth by 2%. But now with 50 percent tariffs it could be twice as bad. Would you accept this is a pretty serious hit?



2) Secondly, Trump’s decision to impose 25 per cent tariffs because India imports Russian oil is a threat to India’s core interests and its policy of strategic autonomy. Trump is attempting to veto who we trade with and what we buy. That’s another serious concern.



“Unfair, unjustified, unreasonable”; “extremely unfortunate”.



3) Third, beyond trade, India-US relations have become progressively adversarial – Trump’s repeated insistence he brokered the ceasefire after Operation Sindoor, his improving relations with Pakistan, his attack on BRICS and the question marks he’s raised about the future of QUAD and America’s Indo-Pacific strategy are surely very disturbing for India. Aren’t they?



4) On the issue of Russian oil, the MEA statement says America encouraged India to buy Russian oil. This is what Eric Garcetti said in May 2024 when he was American Ambassador in Delhi: “Actually, they (India) bought Russian oil because we (the US) wanted somebody to buy Russian oil at a price cap … because as a commodity we didn’t want oil prices going up and they fulfilled that.” Trump is deliberately ignoring American policy under Biden.



5) In fact, as the MEA pointed out in a statement on Monday, Trump is also being hypocritical. America continues to import palladium, uranium hexafluoride, fertilizers and chemicals from Russia and the Indian Express (6/8) points out that in the last six months the amount imported has increased substantially compared to last year. So if America can import from Russia why can’t India?



6) The other double standard is that so far Trump has not threatened China with tariffs or penalties for importing Russian oil or Iranian oil. It’s the largest importer of Russian oil. Nor has he targeted Turkey, the third largest. His wrath is single-mindedly directed at Delhi.


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