The New Logic of Trade: Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and the Search for Stability

Global trade and global trade law is being reshaped by the shifting tectonics of geopolitics and geoeconomics. Traditional principles of open markets and multilateralism are colliding with strategies of national security, industrial policy, and technological sovereignty. The resulting fractured trading system is marked by tariffs, export controls, and the re-shoring and occasional friendshoring of supply chains.

This presentation examines the underlying drivers of current trade tensions—ranging from strategic rivalry among major powers to domestic political constraints—and identifies viable pathways toward de-escalation. It argues that restoring stability will require a hybrid approach: reaffirming the norms of the rules-based system while designing flexible mechanisms for managing strategic competition. By integrating insights from law, economics, and international relations, the discussion seeks to move beyond narratives of confrontation and to outline a pragmatic framework for cooperation in an era defined as much by power politics as by interdependence.

About the Speaker:

Markus Wagner is Professor of Law at the University of Wollongong and Director of its Transnational Law & Policy Centre. He previously held academic positions at the University of Miami and the University of Warwick. He is an internationally recognised expert in international economic law and governance as well as comparative constitutional law. His current work focuses on second and third generation barriers to trade and the legal ramifications of ongoing geopolitical global rivalries.

Professor Wagner holds law degrees from the University of Giessen (Germany) and Stanford Law School. After finishing his undergraduate degree with distinction, he was a research fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and Public International Law in Heidelberg (Germany), before undertaking postgraduate studies at Stanford Law School. He subsequently clerked for then-President of the Supreme Court of Israel, Aharon Barak before working for the Brussels office of WilmerHale.

Chair: Professor Giuliano Castellano, Director of AIIFL and Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, The University of Hong Kong