Introduction To Demand Forecasting.

Introduction to Demand Forecasting.
Organizational Behavior,
Introduction:
Forecasts are becoming the lifeline of business in a world, where the tidal waves of change are sweeping the most established of structures. Survival in this age requires the tact, talent and technique of predicting the future.
Demand forecasting is the scientific and analytical estimation of demand for a product or service for a particular period of time.
It is the estimation of the unknown future demand for the purpose of production operations planning.
It is an art or science of predicting or estimating the future demand for a product undertaken for the purpose of long term decisions and planning.
It is the process of determining how much of whatproducts are needed when, where and how long.
It is becoming increasingly important and necessary for business to predict their future prospects in terms of sales, cost and profits. The value of future sales is crucial as it affects costs profits, so the prediction of future sales is the logical starting point of all business planning.
Demand forecasting is very popular in industrially advanced countries. Demand forecasting is bound to become more important with the growing industrialization of the country.
This is necessary for sound planning.
It lays the foundation for operation planning, scheduling, production planning, inventory management and other production and operation functions.
Long term plan forms the framework for corporate investment planning, capital management, expansion, capacity planning, research and executive development.
There are certain economic criteria of broader applica¬bility. They are:
(i) Accuracy:
The forecast obtained must be accurate. How is an accurate forecast possible? To obtain an accurate forecast, it is essential to check the accuracy of past forecasts against present performance and of present forecasts against future performance. Accuracy cannot be tested by precise measure¬ment but buy judgment.
(ii) Plausibility:
The executive should have good understanding of the technique chosen and they should have confidence in the techniques used. Understanding is also needed for a proper interpretation of results. Plausibility requirements can often improve the accuracy of results.
(iii) Durability:
Unfortunately, a demand function fitted to past experience may back cost very greatly and still fall apart in a short time as a forecaster. The durability of the forecasting power of a demand function depends partly on the reasonableness and simplicity of functions fitted, but primarily on the stability of the understanding relationships measured in the past. Of course, the importance of durability deter¬mines the allowable cost of the forecast.
(iv) Flexibility:
Flexibility can be viewed as an alternative to generality. A long lasting function could be set up in terms of basic natural forces and human motives. Even though fundamental, it would nevertheless be hard to measure and thus not very useful. A set of variables whose co-efficient could be adjusted from time to time to meet changing conditions in more practical way to maintain intact the routine procedure of forecasting.
(v) Availability:
Immediate availability of data is a vital requirement and the search for reasonable approximations to relevance in late data is a constant strain on the forecasters patience. The techniques employed should be able to produce meaningful results quickly. Delay in result will adversely affect the managerial decisions.
(vi) Economy:
Cost is a primary consideration which should be weighted against the importance of the forecasts to the business operations. A question may arise: How much money and managerial effort should be allocated to obtain a high level of forecasting accuracy? The criterion here is the economic considera¬tion.
(vii) Simplicity:
Statistical and econometric models are certainly useful but they are intolerably complex. To those executives who have a fear of mathematics, these methods would appear to be Latin or Greek. The procedure should, therefore, be simple and easy so that the management may appreciate and understand why it has been adopted by the forecaster.
(viii) Consistency:
The forecaster has to deal with various components which are independent. If he does not make an adjustment in one component to bring it in line with a forecast of another, he would achieve a whole which would appear consistent.


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