The Ukraine War After Kursk - Retreat, Lessons, Negotiations & The Coming Russian Offensive

In August 2024, Ukraine seized hundreds of square kilometres of Russia's Kursk region in a surprise offensive. Now, more than six months later, the operation has mostly ended with a Ukrainian retreat to a small holding along the Ukrainian border.

In this episode we look at the close of the campaign, lessons arising from it, and ask what might be coming next amidst U.S. lead negotiations and evidence of coming Russian offensive efforts.

Patreon:
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Reading and Sourcing:

Visually confirmed loss data generally per warspotting & Oryx as normal

General territorial control mapping:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/51.33...

Percentage of regional control figures:
https://www.warmapper.org/stats

Kursk loss localisation figures:
https://x.com/naalsio26

Loss distribution maps per Lostarmor:
https://lostarmour.info/

defence mapping by @Playfra0
https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1907182...

Civilian vehicle loss split by @AndrewPerpetua
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1...

wire laying UGV
https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1907232...

Carlson - Witkoff interview reported transcript
https://detector.media/withoutsection...

Reuters on Witkoff
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-e...

The Birds becoming a brigade
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/12/1...

Reporting on Kursk withdrawal
https://kyivindependent.com/the-rise-...
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-...

Russia planning to increase troops in Ukraine by 150,000
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-pl...

Ramstein pledges
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg...

Brent crude price
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodit...

Urals reaches $53
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

Russian Recruitment & Bonus Payments
https://x.com/jakluge/status/19113715...
https://vk.com/wall-150272757_54052
https://www.businessinsider.com/russi...

TASS on Russian UAS operations, Rubicon & Kursk
https://tass.com/politics/1898715

The Encirclement claim
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-cla...

Ukrainian reporting on M2 repairs
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukrain...

Other featured reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-o...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-off...
https://www.businessinsider.com/pro-r...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukr...
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/0...

Caveats & Comments:

All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.

Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:37 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:05 — Kursk Closes Out
00:11:37 — Tactical Observations
00:28:16 — Evaluating Kursk
00:35:24 — Signs of More to Come
00:45:51 — a Russian Offensive?
00:45:59 — Motive
00:47:58 — Urgency
00:50:51 — Means
00:58:25 — Will It Be Enough?
01:00:59 — Channel Update