France Votes Against Crime

Elections have consequences. Some have more consequences than others. The French legislative election to be held on June 30th and July 8th has been called the most consequential French election in decades and it is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the country, with significant implications for French political stability and economic outlook. Emmanuel Macron faces a challenging landscape marked by French economic instability and increasing French political polarization. The French manufacturing PMI remains in contractionary territory, and the French IMF forecast predicts meager growth, highlighting the urgent need for French political reforms. As Marine Le Pen and other populist right-wing parties gain traction, the threat of French social unrest looms large. The French government fiscal deficit and the rising French government debt compound these issues, raising concerns over French government bond spreads. The potential for a French coalition government amidst political gridlock further complicates the path forward. The populist right in Europe has seen varied success, but in France, the stakes are particularly high with French personal security and immigration concerns at the forefront. Despite a French tourism boom, the broader economic challenges persist, including debates over the French retirement age reform. The upcoming elections will undoubtedly be a test of French political stability and the country's ability to navigate these turbulent times. Why is this election so important? What is it about? What does the RIWI-Unbound survey say about the most likely outcome? What will be its impact on France, on the world, and on financial markets? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew. #FrenchElection2024 #PopulistRightRise #MacronVsLePen

Chapters:
0:00 Intro
0:51 France’s Crucial Election
1:41 Three Reasons To Vote
3:42 Ce N’est Pas L’économie Stupide
5:33 What Causes the Crime?
7:41 My Predictions

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