DFW Market 2026: Balanced Conditions — Here's What It Means

This week: rates eased to 6.22% (30-yr) with a choppy-but-improving trend, the 2026 consensus points to a “reset” (slower price growth, more inventory, steadier rates), Texas tracks similarly with affordability shaped by taxes & insurance, and DFW looks balanced—no crash, no runaway surge, just practical leverage for well-prepared buyers and realistic sellers.

Highlights
✅ Rates now: 30-yr 6.22%, 15-yr 5.74%, FHA/VA just under 5.9%; pattern = small steps lower, brief pullbacks, then stabilize.
✅ 2026 consensus: Low–mid 6% mortgage range; prices +1–4% nationally; modest sales lift as pent-up demand releases; inventory improving (~“normalizing” conditions).
✅ Texas lens: Sales up modestly; SF permits firmer, MF cools; affordability shaped by property taxes & insurance.
✅ DFW reality: Price growth ~1.8–4% depending on submarket; 3–4 MOS in many areas; well-priced, well-presented homes still move.

Insurance Update - Home insurance is a bigger part of the payment in 2026. For policy reviews, deductible/roof coverage questions, or pre-purchase risk checks, email Nick Klein (HI Agency) → [email protected]. He can walk you through coverage trade-offs before hail season.

If this helped, like/subscribe/share. Want a ZIP-specific comp set or a buy-vs-rent/payment plan? Message me—happy to run it.

CHAPTERS
00:00 Intro — why 2026 is a reset
00:30 Rate check: 30-yr 6.22%; trend & drivers
02:00 What “predictable range” means for buyers/sellers/builders
03:05 Insurance Update w/ Nick Klein (coverage, deductibles, timing) → [email protected]
05:10 National outlook: prices +1–4%, sales modestly higher
06:30 Texas lens: affordability = taxes + insurance
07:40 DFW: balanced market, where leverage shows up
10:00 What to do next (pricing, prep, credits)
11:30 Year-end sign-off — next update Mon, Jan 5