Bessent Says China Hit the 12mmt Soybean Target - Is He Right? Is this a Win for Farmers??

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0:43 Bessent, China, Soybeans
4:53 Soybean Price Action
5:49 Row Crop Decisions
8:01 Grain Shipments
9:29 Flash Sales
9:44 Japan Bond Mess
11:35 Microstrategy and Bitcoin

🇨🇳 China & U.S. Soybeans

China has reportedly completed its ~12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

Shipments are expected to move by May

Focus now shifts to China’s 25 mmt annual soybean pledge over the next three years

Despite that pledge, South American soybeans remain more competitive, likely capping U.S. demand

Ongoing economic strain and a smaller hog herd could further weigh on Chinese soybean usage

📌 Important context:

USDA has only confirmed 8.1 mmt of soybean sales to China so far

Roughly half of recent “Unknown” sales likely end up in China, plus some unreported intra-house business

Even at 12 mmt, purchases are well below the ~22.5 mmt China bought last marketing year

That’s why USDA cut its U.S. soybean export forecast last week

See charts below 👇

📉 Grain Markets

Soybeans: Mar ’26 contract slipped ~5¢, settling near $10.53

Pressure came from:

Rising geopolitical tensions over Greenland

Expectations for a record Brazilian soybean crop

Corn: Mar ’26 futures eased ~1¢ to $4.24

Charts below 👇

🚜 Farm Economy Reality Check

Farmers face tight margins after years of weak prices and rising costs

New York farmer Ron Robbins used detailed field-level data to:

Fallow unprofitable acres

Improve marginal land

Shift some acres from soybeans to corn

His takeaway: the downturn may be the new normal — reassessment is no longer optional

🚢 Weekly Export Shipments (USDA)

Corn: Strong print, beating expectations

Soybeans: Near top end of estimates; China took 46% of the week’s volume

Wheat: Also near the high end of expectations

YTD snapshot:

Soybean shipments: well below last year

Corn shipments: well ahead of last year

China-bound soybean cargoes shipped via both PNW and Gulf

🌱 Flash Sale

USDA confirmed a soybean meal sale to the Philippines for next marketing year

🌍 Macro & Markets

Japan’s bond market saw sharp turmoil after fiscal concerns and a weak auction

Long-dated yields spiked, spilling into global credit markets

S&P 500 logged its largest one-day drop since October

A weaker dollar failed to spark meaningful buying in ag

₿ Bitcoin Watch

Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has gone all-in again:

Massive recent Bitcoin purchases

Now the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally

Strategy uses Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve, funded largely through debt issuance

CEO Michael Saylor remains controversial due to the aggressive approach

Charts below 👇