Why China Is Dumping U.S. Treasuries to Buy Silver — The $127B Shift Explained

December 12th, 2025. U.S. Treasury TIC data just dropped. China's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell by approximately $127 billion over the past 18 months — from $860 billion (June 2024) to $733 billion (November 2025). That's a 15% reduction in their largest foreign asset.
But here's what caught my attention: During the exact same 18-month period, China's silver imports surged 29% — from 4,800 metric tons (2023) to over 6,200 metric tons (Jan-Oct 2025).
China is selling U.S. paper assets. And buying physical silver. Why?
In this video I break down:
Treasury liquidation timeline: $1.3T peak (2013) → $733B today (44% reduction)
Silver import surge: 2020-2025 data showing 76% increase over 5 years
The mathematical connection: 10% of $127B = $12.7B into silver = 363M oz
China's actual imports: 238M oz annually (2025 pace) vs 135M oz (2020)
Strategic rationale: Why silver beats gold for geopolitical preparation
Export restrictions: China blocking silver exports (Nov 2025) while importing
Four-stage pattern: Accumulation → Plateau → Liquidation → Decoupling (we're in stage 3)
Russia precedent: Dumped Treasuries 2014-2020, bought 1,300+ tons gold before sanctions
Taiwan preparation thesis: Why China needs sanction-proof hard assets
Supply squeeze math: China absorbing 178M oz annually = entire global deficit
This is educational analysis only. I'm not a financial advisor. Always DYOR.
Why this matters now:
China dumped $127B Treasuries in 18 months (fastest pace ever)
Silver imports hit 6,200 metric tons through Oct 2025 (+29% vs 2023)
China produces 119M oz + imports 238M oz = 357M oz total annual supply
Global silver deficit: 180M oz annually (China absorbing nearly all of it)
Export restrictions started Nov 28, 2025 (removing supply while importing)
U.S. debt at $36T, deficits $2T annually (China sees unsustainable trajectory)
Russia precedent: Reduced Treasuries 2014-2020, survived sanctions via hard assets
If just 10% of Treasury sales went to silver: $12.7B = 363M oz demand
Silver at $59 today — up 228% from $18 (2020) when China started accelerating
Historical pattern: Russia dumped Treasuries + bought gold BEFORE sanctions. China doing same playbook + adding silver.
Strategic logic: Gold = monetary. Silver = monetary + industrial + necessary for solar/military/5G. If preparing for sanctions (Taiwan scenario), silver more valuable than gold in some ways.
Market impact: If China holds what data suggests, they own 10-15% of global silver market. When that becomes public knowledge, price discovery will be violent.
If you want real-time tracking of China's monthly Treasury holdings (TIC data), silver import data (customs reports), and export restriction updates, subscribe and turn on notifications — I'm monitoring this monthly and will document the full liquidation.


⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This video is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this video constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
The views expressed are my personal analysis of publicly available U.S. Treasury and Chinese customs data. Estimates of China's strategic silver stockpiling cannot be independently verified. Correlation between Treasury sales and silver purchases does not prove direct causation. All investments carry risk, including potential loss of principal.
📚 DATA SOURCES:
U.S. Treasury TIC data (Treasury International Capital)
Chinese customs data (General Administration of Customs)
Silver Institute supply/demand reports
World Gold Council central bank data
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
🔔 Subscribe for geopolitical commodity analysis and China strategic positioning tracking.