Carl Shulman (Pt 2) — AI Takeover, bio & cyber attacks, detecting deception, & humanity's far future

The second half of my 7 hour conversation with Carl Shulman is out! My favorite part! And the one that had the biggest impact on my worldview. Here, Carl lays out how an AI takeover might happen:
AI can threaten mutually assured destruction from bioweapons,
use cyber attacks to take over physical infrastructure,
build mechanical armies,
spread seed AIs we can never exterminate,
offer tech and other advantages to collaborating countries, etc

Plus we talk about a whole bunch of weird and interesting topics which Carl has thought about:
what is the far future best case scenario for humanity
what it would look like to have AI make thousands of years of intellectual progress in a month
how do we detect deception in superhuman models
does space warfare favor defense or offense
is a Malthusian state inevitable in the long run
why markets haven't priced in explosive economic growth
& much more

Carl also explains how he developed such a rigorous, thoughtful, and interdisciplinary model of the biggest problems in the world.

𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒
Catch part 1 here:    • Carl Shulman (Pt 1) — Intelligence explosi...  
Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/carl-sh...
Apple Podcasts: https://bit.ly/3r1HBJk
Spotify: https://bit.ly/437t50c
Follow me on Twitter:   / dwarkesh_sp  
Carl's blog: http://reflectivedisequilibrium.blogs...

𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒
This episode is sponsored by 80,000 hours. To get their free career guide (and to help out this podcast), please visit 80000hours.org/lunar.

𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒
00:00:00 - Intro
00:00:47 - AI takeover via cyber or bio
00:32:27 - Can we coordinate against AI?
00:53:49 - Human vs AI colonizers
01:04:55 - Probability of AI takeover
01:21:56 - Can we detect deception?
01:47:25 - Using AI to solve coordination problems
01:56:01 - Partial alignment
02:11:41 - AI far future
02:23:04 - Markets & other evidence
02:33:26 - Day in the life of Carl Shulman
02:47:05 - Space warfare, Malthusian long run, & other rapid fire